| 1 | Growth | U.S. Economy is growing at or above its potential growth rate |
| 2 | Recession | U.S Economy is shrinking (negative quarter over quarter growth rate) |
| 3 | Stagnation | U.S Economy is growing at lower than its potential rate |
| 4 | Inflation | Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate is higher than U.S. economy’s potential growth rate |
| 5 | Chaos | A high impact, low probability event (“Black Swans”) |